Trouble in ‘Paradise’: Taliban “Declares War” on Pakistan after Airstrikes Kill 46 People

In a dramatic escalation of tensions, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban movement has said it will carry out a war against Pakistan, citing alleged violations of sovereignty, cross-border attacks, and the unresolved Durand Line dispute. This announcement, if confirmed, signals a dangerous turn in the already fragile relations between the two neighbouring countries, both of which have long histories of mistrust and conflict.

Pakistan was prime mover behind convincing the global community of nations to recognize the Taliban back in 2021 when they took over the reigns of Afghanistan after the US retreat and abandonment of Afghanistan where it had built a fledgling democracy.

Now, the circumstances have taken dramatic turn as it seems that the Taliban is in no mood to excuse Pakistan after a Pakistani airstrike targeting a camp of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) Islamist militant group killed 46 people.  A spokesman for the Afghan Taliban says that Pakistan targeted civilians, killing eight innocents, including three children.

Tensions have never been so high. Indeed, Pakistan is responsible for the Taliban being in power. Since the early nineties, the Taliban was cultivated by the Pakistan spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as a militant organization in Pakistan-based Afghan refugee camps, and with Pakistan’s help took control of most of Afghanistan in 1996.  This was part of a strategy of “Strategic Depth” cultivating a Pakistan friendly government, which would give safe haven to clandestine fighters and Pakistan military as they waged a proxy war against India. However, Taliban gave shelter to the terrorist group, Al Qaeda, which attached the United States leading to the US-led ‘War on Terror.” The Americans dislodged the Taliban, punishing them for harbouring and fighting with terrorists that were anti-US. However, Pakistan even while ostensibly supporting the US was always angling to get homegrown terrorists back in power.

The TTP pledges allegiance to, and gets its name from the Afghan Taliban, but is not directly a part of the group that rules Afghanistan. Its stated aim is to impose Islamic religious law in Pakistan, as the Taliban has done in Afghanistan.

“Afghanistan considers this brutal act a blatant violation of all international principles and an obvious act of aggression,” Enayatullah Khowrazmi, a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defence, said in a statement. “The Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered.”

Background of the Tensions

Afghanistan and Pakistan share a 2,670-kilometer border, known as the Durand Line, which was drawn during British colonial rule in 1893. Afghanistan has never officially recognized this boundary, leading to periodic disputes. Over the years, relations between the two countries have been strained by accusations of harboring militants, border skirmishes, and conflicting interests in the region.

Recent months have seen heightened tensions, with both nations accusing each other of supporting cross-border terrorism. Pakistan claims that Afghanistan has allowed militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate from Afghan territory and launch attacks on Pakistani soil. Conversely, Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of meddling in its internal affairs and supporting insurgent groups that undermine Afghan sovereignty.

Immediate Cause of Conflict

The declaration of war reportedly stems from escalating clashes along the border, particularly in the Chaman-Spin Boldak area, which has witnessed heavy exchanges of gunfire between Afghan and Pakistani forces. Afghanistan claims that Pakistan’s border fencing and military incursions violate Afghan territory. On the other hand, Pakistan asserts that its actions are defensive measures aimed at preventing militant infiltration.

Compounding the situation are ongoing accusations of proxy warfare. Afghanistan alleges that Pakistan’s intelligence agencies have been covertly supporting factions within the Taliban to destabilize the Afghan government. Meanwhile, Pakistan insists that Afghanistan has failed to take action against groups targeting Pakistani forces.

Pakistan’s growing frustration over Afghanistan’s inability—or unwillingness—to address the threat posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has brought tensions between the two nations to a boiling point.

“Pakistan’s main concern is the security threat we face from terror groups, particularly the TTP and its affiliates, which have safe havens and hideouts inside Afghanistan,” said Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, Pakistan’s foreign ministry spokesperson, in an interview with DW.

She further expressed concern over the TTP’s freedom of operation within Afghanistan, stating, “We are troubled by the ease with which these groups operate freely from Afghan soil and carry out terrorist attacks within Pakistani territory.” Despite repeated appeals, Pakistan says the Taliban government in Kabul has failed to take effective action to curb these groups and prevent the use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan.

Kabul’s Pushback

The Taliban leadership in Afghanistan has resisted Islamabad’s demands for decisive action against the TTP. They argue that the situation is far more complex than Pakistan assumes and that a heavy-handed approach could destabilize not only Afghanistan and Pakistan but also the broader region.

Pakistan’s patience is clearly wearing thin. The security situation along the Afghan-Pakistani border has been deteriorating, and Pakistan’s military leaders are reportedly growing increasingly uneasy.

Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani diplomat and foreign affairs analyst, noted that Pakistan’s recent airstrikes in Afghan territory reflect its “deep and growing frustration” with Kabul’s inability to act against the TTP. “Over the past two years, numerous rounds of talks with the Taliban have yielded no tangible results on this issue,” Lodhi told DW. “The Taliban leadership has repeatedly asked for more time to address the TTP, but Islamabad sees this as nothing more than an excuse, and it has run out of patience.”

 

What Does the TTP Want?

The TTP has waged a brutal insurgency against the Pakistani state since 2007. While the group is not directly linked to the Afghan Taliban in Kabul, it pledges allegiance to the movement.

One of the TTP’s primary demands is for Pakistan’s government and military to reduce their presence in the country’s northwest, a region where government control remains tenuous. The TTP frequently carries out attacks in this area, contributing to instability.

Since its ban in 2008, the TTP has been responsible for countless terrorist attacks across Pakistan, the most infamous being the 2014 Peshawar school massacre, which killed at least 150 people, mostly children. The group also seeks to impose Sharia law in Pakistan and expand Taliban-style governance across the region, envisioning an Islamist emirate akin to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

The United Nations and the United States have designated the TTP as a terrorist organization. Over the years, their attacks have claimed the lives of thousands of Pakistani civilians and security personnel.

 

A Brewing Conflict?

Pakistan has launched numerous military operations against the TTP in the past, but recent developments suggest it may now be preparing for a more aggressive campaign, even if it means targeting TTP hideouts inside Afghanistan.

Such actions, however, could escalate tensions further. The Afghan Taliban government has warned against any cross-border incursions, with spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid stating, “Afghanistan does not allow anyone to invade its territory. Pakistan should not blame Afghanistan for its own inability to manage internal problems.” He cautioned that Pakistani airstrikes could have severe consequences.

A Complex Web of Challenges

Analysts believe that the TTP issue is intertwined with broader geopolitical and domestic challenges facing both nations.

Omar Samad, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former Afghan ambassador to France and Canada, argues that Pakistan cannot ignore the TTP threat any longer. “The roots of the problem and its evolution over the years involve multiple players and agendas. Addressing this issue requires new thinking and a more effective approach to avoid an all-out conflict that could backfire on all stakeholders,” Samad said.

Domestic pressures are also a factor. In Pakistan, the military faces public criticism over its role in politics, including allegations of election interference and its treatment of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party. Some experts speculate that escalating military operations against the TTP could help Pakistan’s military leadership shore up public support.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the Taliban appear divided over the TTP issue. Muhammad Israr Madani, head of the Islamabad-based think tank International Research Council for Religious Affairs, believes that while the Taliban leadership understands the sensitivity of the TTP problem, many rank-and-file Taliban members share ideological ties with the group. Forcing action against the TTP could fracture the Taliban’s ranks, potentially pushing some fighters toward rival groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).

 

Public Sentiment and Perceptions

Afghans, for their part, view Pakistan with suspicion. Many believe Islamabad has historically supported militant groups in Afghanistan, fueling decades of violence.

“After enduring four decades of conflict, Afghans finally have a semblance of peace. They see Pakistan’s airstrikes as an attempt to destabilize Afghanistan and drag it back into another cycle of bloodshed,” said Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based security analyst. He added that the Taliban government might exploit this sentiment to bolster its legitimacy domestically.

Regional and Global Implications

An outright war between Afghanistan and Pakistan would have far-reaching consequences for South Asia and beyond. Both nations are grappling with internal challenges, including economic crises, political instability, and the presence of extremist groups. A prolonged conflict would exacerbate these issues, plunging the region into deeper chaos.

For Afghanistan, this war would stretch its already limited resources, as the Taliban government struggles to gain international recognition and rebuild a war-torn nation. Pakistan, facing its own economic turmoil and political unrest, would also find itself in a precarious position.

Neighboring countries like India, Iran, and China would be forced to recalibrate their strategies. India, a long-time rival of Pakistan, might see an opportunity to strengthen ties with Afghanistan. Iran, which shares borders with both nations, would likely push for de-escalation to prevent spillover effects. China, with its investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), would be particularly concerned about the security of its projects and personnel.

The Role of International Stakeholders

The international community, including the United Nations, the United States, and regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), would face immense pressure to mediate and prevent a full-blown war. The U.S., which recently withdrew its forces from Afghanistan after two decades, would likely be wary of re-engaging in the region militarily but might leverage diplomatic channels to contain the crisis.

Afghanistan’s promised retaliation against Pakistan, if accurate, represents a turning point in one of South Asia’s most volatile relationships.